General Jumbo's Model Army remembered

High cloud today so it's not quite so gloomy. A fairly good night's sleep too, so I wasn't affected quite so badly by the morning meds. Clare went out early to her study group, leaving ingredients and instructions for making a veggie mince pie. I made the Morning Prayer slide show video for next Wednesday, prepared lunch ready for cooking, then walked in Llandaff Fields for an hour. Since I last walked the footpath that connects Llandaff Fields with Pontcanna Fields, fifteen tall flowering cherry trees have been planted along its length. They aren't young saplings, they don't each need a supporting stake beside them. They will add to the shade as well as springtime colour in years to come. What a delightful surprise!

Iranian missile and drone strikes continue to rain down on Israel and Gulf state cities. I read an interesting article interpreting Iran's military tactics and strategy, making use of 'drone swarming'. In recent years we have been entertained by scores of drones with LED lights painting pictures in the night sky, thanks to fast multi-tasking processors. The same technology can serve as a weapon of war if drones carry an explosive payload. For a generation of fighters skilled with playing computer games, this has changed the nature of front line fighting in Ukraine.  

When I was a keen eight year old reader of the 'Beano' kids comic there was a regular comic strip called General Jumbo's Model Army, about a kid with a regiment of robot toy soldiers remotely controlled by his smart watch, combating evil doers. Very prescient on reflection. It's now become part of present reality.

Iran manufactures cheap easy to make Shahed drones on an industrial scale, supplying them to Russia and anti western insurgent groups. Hi-tech anti-missile systems have a high success rate destroying individual drones in the air, but attack by a remotely controlled air force of multiple drones is a different issue. The cost of anti-missile systems is higher, depleting supplies if used up faster than they can be replaced. The success rate drops and sophisticated weapons system costs escalate. It's the equivalent of using soldiers as cannon fodder without bloodshed, unless there is collateral damage. 

Russia recruits imprisoned criminals and  third world soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Russian military losses are staggeringly high. Such recruits are deemed expendable. It's been compared with losses in the battle of the Somme in the first World War. 

Iranian strategy is different. The growing expense of eliminating deadly drones along with rising oil prices while oil tankers are prevented from using the Straits of Hormuz, will have far reaching economic consequences the world doesn't need or want. Share prices and stock markets are already reacting in a volatile way to the uncertainties surrounding the news. 

In the Vietnam War fifty years ago, cycle riding Viet Cong guerillas disrupted the American war machine with all its sophisticated military hardware, neutralising the US technological advantage in the campaign to halt the spread of Communism. The simplicity and effectiveness of Viet Cong soldiers defending their homeland with their lives earned North Vietnamese communist leaders the right to negotiate for peace and a stake in determining the future of an ideologically divided country. 

Trump's impulsive if not illegal declaration of war against Iran looks like it has let the genie out of the bottle. Not one genie, but a host of man made pests, like a plague of hornets, much more costly to eliminate. Didn't Trump and his advisors see this coming? So far, Arab states that have been targeted are yet to respond militarily. What will happen next?

After open criticism by Trump of Britain's refusal to allow its military bases to be used for opening attacks on Iran, the Prime Minister has defended his decision to Parliament.  "That decision was deliberate." he said. "We believe that the best way forward for the region and for the world is a negotiated settlement in which Iran agrees to give up any aspirations to develop a nuclear weapon and ceases its destabilizing activity across the region. That has been the longstanding position of successive British governments. President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes, but it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest. That is what I've done and I stand by it."

It's a firm principled stance, even if it is derided as weakness by British politicians echoing Trump's views. Starmer has since ordered the use of UK bases to defend against the threat of Iranian drones and missiles, after a Cypriot military base was attacked. A measured response, not an impulsive reaction.

I went out late for an afternoon walk down to the Taff. It's good to have eleven hours of daylight with sunset just before six now. It's full moon tonight, known as the 'Worm moon'. The southern hemisphere will have a total eclipse with the earth turning dark red in the shadow cast by the sun. A so-called 'Blood Moon. After supper, tiredness caught up with me, amplified by the meds. It seems that I need more rest and sleep than I think I need as my recovery quietly progresses and I become more active. I try not to push myself, but it's hard not to take advantage when I feel like I have a spring in my step. It's hard to discipline myself to go to bed early.