Creative defence

I woke up at half past eight  to the sound of hammering and the whine of an electric screwdriver from the loft conversion work next door but one. Then the sound of torrential rain, which sounded like someone was spraying the bedroom window. I had a good night's sleep despite the usual disruptions nevertheless, but I didn't feel much benefit from it. When I was preparing to post today's Morning Prayer YouTube link to the Parish WhatsApp group, I noticed a typo in the title. I couldn't figure out how to edit this on my phone, so I got up and corrected it on my Chromebook before posting.

Despite the sun shining through the clouds, there was a drizzle of rain when I walked to St Catherine's for the Eucharist, and a downpour when I set out for home afterwards. There were eight of us this morning. Jean spotted that my face was drained of colour and asked if I was all right. I admitted that I wasn't. The clot dispersing medication I take upsets my bowels badly from time to time and drains me of energy. I didn't realise it was noticeable to others.

Clare cooked fish for lunch. I had a siesta afterwards, then went for an hour's walk in Llandaff Fields. It was very windy, but it didn't rain again, and I didn't feel so unsteady on my feet as I did earlier in the day. 

Despite peace talks in the Middle Eastern conflict and Trump claiming progress is being made, the reality makes him look foolish, and he faces mounting criticism as the mid term elections draw near. America has disabled a tanker exporting Iranian oil from the Straight of Hormuz. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US supporting Gulf States including Kuwait Airport and Bahrain. 

In the past six months or so, news from conflict zones has been dominated by reports about military use of drones. Ukraine has succeeded in containing Russian advances in the Donbass region in a way that has been very costly to Russian casualties and equipment. The use of remote controlled drones to observe and fire on adversaries has advanced remarkably on both sides, benefiting defenders more than attackers. Into the fray now, remote controlled armed vehicles are appearing. The development and use of artificial intelligence in deploying aerial drone swarms is making a significant difference to what can be achieved on the battlefield tactically and strategically. 

Ukraine's ability to hit Moscow targets is dispelling the popular illusion of Russian invincibility. A drone strike on an oil terminal and a warship in St Petersburg last night occurred while an international economic forum opened in the city. A confident message from Ukraine that nowhere under Russian rule is safe. Last winter Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the city of Kyiv were bombarded by Russian and drone attacks at the coldest time of year. Ukraine's capability to hit long range targets, especially oil and munitions production facilities undermines Russia's ability to wage war, draining its resources. Putin's 'special military operation' led to courageous and determined resistance by Ukraine. Not only that, but it led to a surge in technological creativity and military innovation. Ukraine's experience and expertise in drone warfare is now being sought by those coping with conflict in the Middle East.

Israel continues to attack Hezbollah within Lebanese territory it has invaded and occupied. Talks between  the governments of Israel and Lebanon continue, though it's hard to see how progress can be made when Lebanon is fragmented and not strong enough to disarm Hezbollah, when under duress from Israel with Iran backing Hezbollah. The situation is unstable and chaotic to the benefit of Iran with its own expertise in drone warfare capable of wreaking havoc regionally. Despite the American blockade, it's still Iran that effectively controls traffic in the Straight of Hormuz, propagating an economic crisis that is affecting the world, especially poor underdeveloped countries.

Hopefully when a stalemate in conflict is reached that is too costly and unsustainable for all parties, with warmongers and demagogues discredited and support lost, there will be no alternative left to seek peace other than by dialogue and diplomacy. That's a day I pray will arrive soon.

The drone factor

Clear blue sky and a bit warmer when I woke up to post the Morning Prayer YouTube link to WhatsApp at eight. I slept quite well, but not well enough to spare me the light headedness the medication causes.

American and Israeli forces continue to pound Iran in a huge effort to degrade its ability to wage or or defend itself. Iran continues to retaliate against Gulf Arab states. An Iranian warship has been sunk by an American submarine in the Indian Ocean with at least 80 people killed out of a crew of 180 and about fifty missing. Twenty Iranian naval vessels have been sunk so far and a naval headquarters destroyed according to an American official, with the aim of making the Straits of Hormuz safe for oil tankers. It remains to be seen if the threat to sea traffic from ballistic missiles and drones can be eliminated. Reports are suggesting however, that the frequency of drone attacks is reducing as stock piles rapidly diminish. Drone launch facilities and storage bunkers in Iran have been destroyed, but Shahed drones are now manufactured in Russia as well as Iran, for use against Ukraine, but if any of them are being fed back into the Iranian conflict it could have unforeseen consequences in further widening of the theatre of war

The maritime transport industry is very risk averse, and insurance premiums increase accordingly in these conditions. Thousands of visitors are stuck in Gulf cities under attack, waiting for repatriation flights, uncertain when it will be safe to return home, within the region or further afield. Dubai is a major intercontinental air transport hub, so there are people from all over the world as well as aircraft and crew stuck there. Iran's capacity to destroy enemies may be severely depleted, but its ability to disrupt global travel networks in the meanwhile can have a big economic impact on top of the rising cost of oil and gas. 

Meanwhile Israeli forces are attacking Hezbollah bases in Lebanon, attempting to eliminate the threat on its border, displacing hundreds of civilians. It's still not certain how or when this conflict will end. Iran and its jihadi allies, no matter how hard they are hit, will go down fighting, inflicting as much damage as possible on their foes, encouraged by the promise of reward in Paradise. Iranians may want to see the end of Islamic clerical rule in their country, but toppling the regime with excessive force and bloodshed won't end the hatred many Iranians feel towards America, any more than it did among many Iraqi Arabs after the the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Talking of insurance, I had a notification from Staysure stating that my multi-trip travel insurance with the company will be renewed automatically in a month's time. I don't ever recall agreeing to an option that will if not acted upon, debit my account with another annual premium. I visited my online account to view the policy and engaged with the site's chat bot to terminate the policy not renew it. The bot wanted to know the reason, which I thought was rather impudent. Its reaction to my information light response was to propose alternative policy options. I had to insist I no longer needed anything and eventually received an email confirming that I had opted out of automatic policy renewal. First the bot asked if I had any claim outstanding to be settled. At that point it struck me I didn't need to cancel a policy about to finish. All I had to do was opt out of automatic renewal. Commercial legal language is a foreign tongue to me.

I went to the Eucharist at St Catherine's with seven others. Clare was shopping in town, so I cooked a savoury veg dish with black beans for lunch. I slept in my chair for three quarters of an hour afterwards, then walked for an hour in Llandaff Fields as the sun was setting. Clare went out to sing at a Canton Chorus rehearsal, as she fancied trying a more musically demanding repertoire. 

Finally I got around to looking at material provided by Kath and Owain to fashion a formal complaint to TalkTalk about the way I was treated by TalkTalk over the account switchover. Getting to grips with this has been difficult with my thinking and responses affected by the medication. I must be improving a little to face up to making the effort. I still don't cope well with additional stress of any kind. I had a long chat with Owain on the phone. He's in good spirits at the moment, enjoying his work and being part of a HMRC communications team that works well and does satisfyingly useful stuff.

General Jumbo's Model Army remembered

High cloud today so it's not quite so gloomy. A fairly good night's sleep too, so I wasn't affected quite so badly by the morning meds. Clare went out early to her study group, leaving ingredients and instructions for making a veggie mince pie. I made the Morning Prayer slide show video for next Wednesday, prepared lunch ready for cooking, then walked in Llandaff Fields for an hour. Since I last walked the footpath that connects Llandaff Fields with Pontcanna Fields, fifteen tall flowering cherry trees have been planted along its length. They aren't young saplings, they don't each need a supporting stake beside them. They will add to the shade as well as springtime colour in years to come. What a delightful surprise!

Iranian missile and drone strikes continue to rain down on Israel and Gulf state cities. I read an interesting article interpreting Iran's military tactics and strategy, making use of 'drone swarming'. In recent years we have been entertained by scores of drones with LED lights painting pictures in the night sky, thanks to fast multi-tasking processors. The same technology can serve as a weapon of war if drones carry an explosive payload. For a generation of fighters skilled with playing computer games, this has changed the nature of front line fighting in Ukraine.  

When I was a keen eight year old reader of the 'Beano' kids comic there was a regular comic strip called General Jumbo's Model Army, about a kid with a regiment of robot toy soldiers remotely controlled by his smart watch, combating evil doers. Very prescient on reflection. It's now become part of present reality.

Iran manufactures cheap easy to make Shahed drones on an industrial scale, supplying them to Russia and anti western insurgent groups. Hi-tech anti-missile systems have a high success rate destroying individual drones in the air, but attack by a remotely controlled air force of multiple drones is a different issue. The cost of anti-missile systems is higher, depleting supplies if used up faster than they can be replaced. The success rate drops and sophisticated weapons system costs escalate. It's the equivalent of using soldiers as cannon fodder without bloodshed, unless there is collateral damage. 

Russia recruits imprisoned criminals and  third world soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Russian military losses are staggeringly high. Such recruits are deemed expendable. It's been compared with losses in the battle of the Somme in the first World War. 

Iranian strategy is different. The growing expense of eliminating deadly drones along with rising oil prices while oil tankers are prevented from using the Straits of Hormuz, will have far reaching economic consequences the world doesn't need or want. Share prices and stock markets are already reacting in a volatile way to the uncertainties surrounding the news. 

In the Vietnam War fifty years ago, cycle riding Viet Cong guerillas disrupted the American war machine with all its sophisticated military hardware, neutralising the US technological advantage in the campaign to halt the spread of Communism. The simplicity and effectiveness of Viet Cong soldiers defending their homeland with their lives earned North Vietnamese communist leaders the right to negotiate for peace and a stake in determining the future of an ideologically divided country. 

Trump's impulsive if not illegal declaration of war against Iran looks like it has let the genie out of the bottle. Not one genie, but a host of man made pests, like a plague of hornets, much more costly to eliminate. Didn't Trump and his advisors see this coming? So far, Arab states that have been targeted are yet to respond militarily. What will happen next?

After open criticism by Trump of Britain's refusal to allow its military bases to be used for opening attacks on Iran, the Prime Minister has defended his decision to Parliament.  "That decision was deliberate." he said. "We believe that the best way forward for the region and for the world is a negotiated settlement in which Iran agrees to give up any aspirations to develop a nuclear weapon and ceases its destabilizing activity across the region. That has been the longstanding position of successive British governments. President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes, but it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest. That is what I've done and I stand by it."

It's a firm principled stance, even if it is derided as weakness by British politicians echoing Trump's views. Starmer has since ordered the use of UK bases to defend against the threat of Iranian drones and missiles, after a Cypriot military base was attacked. A measured response, not an impulsive reaction.

I went out late for an afternoon walk down to the Taff. It's good to have eleven hours of daylight with sunset just before six now. It's full moon tonight, known as the 'Worm moon'. The southern hemisphere will have a total eclipse with the earth turning dark red in the shadow cast by the sun. A so-called 'Blood Moon. After supper, tiredness caught up with me, amplified by the meds. It seems that I need more rest and sleep than I think I need as my recovery quietly progresses and I become more active. I try not to push myself, but it's hard not to take advantage when I feel like I have a spring in my step. It's hard to discipline myself to go to bed early.