The drone factor

Clear blue sky and a bit warmer when I woke up to post the Morning Prayer YouTube link to WhatsApp at eight. I slept quite well, but not well enough to spare me the light headedness the medication causes.

American and Israeli forces continue to pound Iran in a huge effort to degrade its ability to wage or or defend itself. Iran continues to retaliate against Gulf Arab states. An Iranian warship has been sunk by an American submarine in the Indian Ocean with at least 80 people killed out of a crew of 180 and about fifty missing. Twenty Iranian naval vessels have been sunk so far and a naval headquarters destroyed according to an American official, with the aim of making the Straits of Hormuz safe for oil tankers. It remains to be seen if the threat to sea traffic from ballistic missiles and drones can be eliminated. Reports are suggesting however, that the frequency of drone attacks is reducing as stock piles rapidly diminish. Drone launch facilities and storage bunkers in Iran have been destroyed, but Shahed drones are now manufactured in Russia as well as Iran, for use against Ukraine, but if any of them are being fed back into the Iranian conflict it could have unforeseen consequences in further widening of the theatre of war

The maritime transport industry is very risk averse, and insurance premiums increase accordingly in these conditions. Thousands of visitors are stuck in Gulf cities under attack, waiting for repatriation flights, uncertain when it will be safe to return home, within the region or further afield. Dubai is a major intercontinental air transport hub, so there are people from all over the world as well as aircraft and crew stuck there. Iran's capacity to destroy enemies may be severely depleted, but its ability to disrupt global travel networks in the meanwhile can have a big economic impact on top of the rising cost of oil and gas. 

Meanwhile Israeli forces are attacking Hezbollah bases in Lebanon, attempting to eliminate the threat on its border, displacing hundreds of civilians. It's still not certain how or when this conflict will end. Iran and its jihadi allies, no matter how hard they are hit, will go down fighting, inflicting as much damage as possible on their foes, encouraged by the promise of reward in Paradise. Iranians may want to see the end of Islamic clerical rule in their country, but toppling the regime with excessive force and bloodshed won't end the hatred many Iranians feel towards America, any more than it did among many Iraqi Arabs after the the toppling of Saddam Hussein.

Talking of insurance, I had a notification from Staysure stating that my multi-trip travel insurance with the company will be renewed automatically in a month's time. I don't ever recall agreeing to an option that will if not acted upon, debit my account with another annual premium. I visited my online account to view the policy and engaged with the site's chat bot to terminate the policy not renew it. The bot wanted to know the reason, which I thought was rather impudent. Its reaction to my information light response was to propose alternative policy options. I had to insist I no longer needed anything and eventually received an email confirming that I had opted out of automatic policy renewal. First the bot asked if I had any claim outstanding to be settled. At that point it struck me I didn't need to cancel a policy about to finish. All I had to do was opt out of automatic renewal. Commercial legal language is a foreign tongue to me.

I went to the Eucharist at St Catherine's with seven others. Clare was shopping in town, so I cooked a savoury veg dish with black beans for lunch. I slept in my chair for three quarters of an hour afterwards, then walked for an hour in Llandaff Fields as the sun was setting. Clare went out to sing at a Canton Chorus rehearsal, as she fancied trying a more musically demanding repertoire. 

Finally I got around to looking at material provided by Kath and Owain to fashion a formal complaint to TalkTalk about the way I was treated by TalkTalk over the account switchover. Getting to grips with this has been difficult with my thinking and responses affected by the medication. I must be improving a little to face up to making the effort. I still don't cope well with additional stress of any kind. I had a long chat with Owain on the phone. He's in good spirits at the moment, enjoying his work and being part of a HMRC communications team that works well and does satisfyingly useful stuff.

General Jumbo's Model Army remembered

High cloud today so it's not quite so gloomy. A fairly good night's sleep too, so I wasn't affected quite so badly by the morning meds. Clare went out early to her study group, leaving ingredients and instructions for making a veggie mince pie. I made the Morning Prayer slide show video for next Wednesday, prepared lunch ready for cooking, then walked in Llandaff Fields for an hour. Since I last walked the footpath that connects Llandaff Fields with Pontcanna Fields, fifteen tall flowering cherry trees have been planted along its length. They aren't young saplings, they don't each need a supporting stake beside them. They will add to the shade as well as springtime colour in years to come. What a delightful surprise!

Iranian missile and drone strikes continue to rain down on Israel and Gulf state cities. I read an interesting article interpreting Iran's military tactics and strategy, making use of 'drone swarming'. In recent years we have been entertained by scores of drones with LED lights painting pictures in the night sky, thanks to fast multi-tasking processors. The same technology can serve as a weapon of war if drones carry an explosive payload. For a generation of fighters skilled with playing computer games, this has changed the nature of front line fighting in Ukraine.  

When I was a keen eight year old reader of the 'Beano' kids comic there was a regular comic strip called General Jumbo's Model Army, about a kid with a regiment of robot toy soldiers remotely controlled by his smart watch, combating evil doers. Very prescient on reflection. It's now become part of present reality.

Iran manufactures cheap easy to make Shahed drones on an industrial scale, supplying them to Russia and anti western insurgent groups. Hi-tech anti-missile systems have a high success rate destroying individual drones in the air, but attack by a remotely controlled air force of multiple drones is a different issue. The cost of anti-missile systems is higher, depleting supplies if used up faster than they can be replaced. The success rate drops and sophisticated weapons system costs escalate. It's the equivalent of using soldiers as cannon fodder without bloodshed, unless there is collateral damage. 

Russia recruits imprisoned criminals and  third world soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Russian military losses are staggeringly high. Such recruits are deemed expendable. It's been compared with losses in the battle of the Somme in the first World War. 

Iranian strategy is different. The growing expense of eliminating deadly drones along with rising oil prices while oil tankers are prevented from using the Straits of Hormuz, will have far reaching economic consequences the world doesn't need or want. Share prices and stock markets are already reacting in a volatile way to the uncertainties surrounding the news. 

In the Vietnam War fifty years ago, cycle riding Viet Cong guerillas disrupted the American war machine with all its sophisticated military hardware, neutralising the US technological advantage in the campaign to halt the spread of Communism. The simplicity and effectiveness of Viet Cong soldiers defending their homeland with their lives earned North Vietnamese communist leaders the right to negotiate for peace and a stake in determining the future of an ideologically divided country. 

Trump's impulsive if not illegal declaration of war against Iran looks like it has let the genie out of the bottle. Not one genie, but a host of man made pests, like a plague of hornets, much more costly to eliminate. Didn't Trump and his advisors see this coming? So far, Arab states that have been targeted are yet to respond militarily. What will happen next?

After open criticism by Trump of Britain's refusal to allow its military bases to be used for opening attacks on Iran, the Prime Minister has defended his decision to Parliament.  "That decision was deliberate." he said. "We believe that the best way forward for the region and for the world is a negotiated settlement in which Iran agrees to give up any aspirations to develop a nuclear weapon and ceases its destabilizing activity across the region. That has been the longstanding position of successive British governments. President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes, but it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest. That is what I've done and I stand by it."

It's a firm principled stance, even if it is derided as weakness by British politicians echoing Trump's views. Starmer has since ordered the use of UK bases to defend against the threat of Iranian drones and missiles, after a Cypriot military base was attacked. A measured response, not an impulsive reaction.

I went out late for an afternoon walk down to the Taff. It's good to have eleven hours of daylight with sunset just before six now. It's full moon tonight, known as the 'Worm moon'. The southern hemisphere will have a total eclipse with the earth turning dark red in the shadow cast by the sun. A so-called 'Blood Moon. After supper, tiredness caught up with me, amplified by the meds. It seems that I need more rest and sleep than I think I need as my recovery quietly progresses and I become more active. I try not to push myself, but it's hard not to take advantage when I feel like I have a spring in my step. It's hard to discipline myself to go to bed early.

Ending a conflict is harder than starting one

A bright sunny morning. It's slightly warmer today, fifteen degrees. I didn't take a statin last night. Today's Blood Pressure pill certainly made me feel light headed. Despite insufficient sleep, I had a fair amount of energy for a change. I hoovered the carpets after breakfast, then went to Tesco's for a heavy rucksack full of groceries, and cooked a lentil and mushroom dish with rice for lunch. 

I received a letter for an appointment with Dr Tom Hughes in response to my request for a second opinion several weeks ago. It's at the end of April. I could be much better or dead by then!

I exchanged messages with my nephew Julian, now living in the south of Ireland, after an avionics career living in Dubai. His son's family still lives there. He shared a phone video of an Iranian drone intercepted by an anti-aircraft rocket high above Dubai City. The United Arab Emirates are among several states under bombardment, including Saudi Arabia. Iran seems to be inviting heavy retaliation from well armed Arab oil producing countries as well as from America and Israel. The Iranian government is in the throes of choosing a new supreme leader, while the country is under bombardment against a background of muted population unrest. Trump's call for regime change may not turn out in a way that suits his ambitions. If the Iranian government falls and the country descends into factional fighting or anarchy, how will a return to stability be achieved if America is involved, given the strength of anti-American feeling? It's not clear what Trump's hopes for a post-war Iran look like in an ever changing situation.

American presidential decisions made by George Bush to invade Iraq in 2003 and topple Saddam Hussein, justified partly by false intelligence, proved very costly with the loss of nearly four and a half thousand American lives. Iraqi insurgent groups evolved into Al Qaeda. It wasn't just an anti-American resistance militia but a Salafi Islamist militant movement determined to bring an Islamic state into being, with tragic consequences for the world. How to end that conflict wasn't thought through adequately from the outset. Will Trump learn the lessons of history? He's more of a tactical thinker than he is a strategist. 

Sir Keir Starmer is a Prime Minister who does think things through, considers the evidence and may well lead to him changing his mind. Good for him. His reservations about the legality of Trump's war-making, and caution about allowing the deployment of British military bases in this conflict have been openly criticised by Trump. It's encouraging to think we have a leader who stands his ground without feeling compelled to please such an unreliable leader capable of switching from ally to adversary on a whim.

When I set out for an afternoon walk in Llandaff Fields I found I could walk at a brisker pace for three quarters of an hour without flagging or becoming breathless. An agreeable surprise. Clare went to choir practice after an early supper. Rachel called and we chatted for so long that Clare returned and continued the conversation for even longer. Then another effort to get to bed early to compensate for last night's sleep loss. It's a battle I lose more often than not.

Uncertainty after an assassination

Fine weather doesn't last long. It's a return to low cloud with the prospect of drizzle again today. Last night the death of Iran's supreme leader Khamenei, along with several other key regime figures in an air strike  was reported. In Iran while some crowds are mourning, other crowds are rejoicing. Retaliatory air strikes on Israel and on Arab cities in the Gulf continue relentlessly. Iranian military targets are being bombarded with the aim of countering the aggression. Trump is calling for regime change now that the supreme leader's cruel dictatorship has ended, but a dictatorship is more than one man. 

Iranian religious and political leaders rely on resistance against common enemies. It's in their interests to maintain a brutal authoritarian status quo. Regime opponents are far from united - patriotic monarchists, secular, democrats, pro and anti-America, Islamist extremists. What kind of reforming regime can succeed in guiding the country post-war towards a consensus about the nation's future? Meanwhile the corrupt elite of the revolutionary guard will do everything it can to maintain control in the face of chaos. If eliminated, who knows what kind of violent internal power struggle will be unleashed? 

Attacks on neighbouring Arab states and their response produces another measure of uncertainty. Iran has closed the Straits of Hormuz to traffic. One tanker has already been attacked. Twenty per cent of the global oil supply passes through the straits. This will have far reaching negative impact on the world economy. Has Trump waged war without thinking through the consequences, both immediate and long term?

I slept fairly well despite the usual bladder disruptions. I was fairly clear headed and sharp when I got up and took my blood pressure tablet. Inevitably it made me light headed, but without the toxic impact or drowsiness that has plagued me for so long. This made it easier for me to get ready for church and get there on time for a Lenten celebration of St David's Day. Some of the little girls in Sunday Club came dressed in traditional Welsh hats. One of the younger teenage girls read a lesson beautifully. We defied liturgical tradition by singing the Gloria in Lent. I don't know what Dewi Sant would make of this. Celtic liturgical practice may have been varied locally in any case.

We sang several traditional roof-raising Welsh hymns. Calon Lan proved to be difficult if you didn't know it by heart, as the text on the bilingual hymn sheet was tiny and laid out in a way that was confusing to read. This was reflected in subdued singing from those who, like me, had never memorised it. In contrast, the English rendition of 'Cwm Rhondda' was loud and lusty. I got back home before Clare after the service and prepared the veggies and Salmon for cooking. 

I didn't feel I needed a snooze after lunch and wrote for a while before walking in Llandaff Fields for an hour and a quarter. Daffodils are blossoming in abundance, and the first Celandines are catching up. I took a few pictures to send to cousin Dianne in memory of my Godmother, Auntie Celandine.

 I felt quite tired towards the end of the walk, maybe because I didn't have a rest earlier. I can put up with the blood pressure medication making me feel light headed and even tired when I don't experience the intoxication that seems to be produced by the statins. 

After an early supper, Clare went to a concert given by the Welsh language band 'Brigyn' at St John's. I didn't fancy an evening of amplified music. Apart from the loudness, it's not my kind of music and my Welsh isn't good enough to follow. Clare returned half an hour later, disappointed because she got the date of the concert wrong. It was yesterday. We then sat side by side listening to different programmes through headphones on laptops. A weird opera in Welsh for Clare, and a second series of 'Casi de Teresa Battaglia', set in Udine for me. It's the first time we did that, I think.